B 444627 OlJF'L 'I f i 1 \ t jjAAFR OF FROF ES80R s J EVONS, , , 76/% /#& — ♦ — - jyi9r-i/t‘ ~TtJts 'WWh great regret that we have to record the death o£ Professor Jevons. He was drowned in the sea between I St. Leonard’s and . Bexhill, on . Sunday morning, while ^ ■ n a.nd fnmily I'i.kI teen staying at THE COAL QUESTION On the 13th Aug., at St. Leonard's-ouSea, drowned, while bathlDg, I WILLIAM STANLEY JEVONS. LL.D., F.K.S., &c., of The Chest- nuts, Hampstead, in the 47th year of hie age. - ~ O * VT71EX. .! AN INQUIRY £ 4 V 4' ' • _ CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF THE NATION, AND THE PROBABLE EXHAUSTION OF OUR COAL-MINES WT STANLEY JEVONS, M.A. FEI.LOW OF UNIVERSITY COLLEGE, LONDON ; <-OBDEN PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL ECONOMY IN OWENS COLLEGE, M ANC H Es IJ , I , SECOXD ED1TI0X, REVISED. ionium : j\I acmillan AND o 0. I 860 . . “ The progressive state is in reality the cheerful and the hearty state to all the different orders of the society; the stationary is dull ; the declining melancholy.” Adam Smith. great regret that we have to record the dentil of Professor Jevons. He was drowned in the sea between St. Leonard’s and Bcxhill, on Sunday morning, while bathing. He and his wife and family bad - been staying Cliff-houeo, Galley-hill for the last five weeks, and their sojourn there was to have terminated to-day. The inquest was held at Bexhill on Monday afternoon, before Mr. Charles Sheppard, the Coroner for the Rape of Hastings. It appeared that tbe deceased arid Mrs. Jen with thoir children, were walking on the beach on Sunday! morning. The Professor had a day or two before said he ' should liko to bathe, but Mrs. Jevons begged him not to do so, as he had not been in good bodily health. He left them on tbe beach, and Mrs. Jevons thought he was going up to I the house. Sho asked him to sond the servant down, and | the servout came shortly afterwards. About a half afterwards Mrs. Jevons heard that a gentlemaa| named Jevons was drowned. In her opinion he was not man likely to commit suicide. Ha was, in fact, as happy as any one could be. William Spark; a school-teacher, gave evidence to the effect, that shortly after 11 o’clock, four boy6 came to him the cliff, and said they thought a mac was drowning. Running down to the beach, witness 6aw a body floating about 40 yards out. It was going about like a cork, back- wards and forwards. The tide was on the ebb and tbe body was gradually floating Beaward. He weot into tin to try and get the body out but was unsuccessful. Wit though that that spot was a doDgerons one for bathers especially at high w ater. It was indeed about the worst spot that one could select for bathing. Another witness said there was a nasty swell in shore, but no breakers outside. It was a dangerous sea except to good swim- mers. The body was recovered and was taken to tha coast-guard station close by. IVm. Haigh, at whose house the deceased was staying, said the Professor swimmer. The jury returned a verdictof accidental death by drowning. The deceased, William Stanley Jevons, was tbe son an iron merchant at Livurpool, and was born there on 1st of September. 1833. His mother, who wrote po ■nd edited the “ Sacred Offering,” was a daughter 'William Roscoe, the author of the well known biogra- phies of Lorenzo do Mo.bci and Leo X. His early educa- as recoivod at the High School of the Mechanics’ I osti- i, Liverpool, thea under the rule of the late Dr. 11'. B. Hodg9on. At the age of 18 he entered University Col- lege, London, and matriculated with honours in botany and hemistry. From 18d3 to 1838, or from his 18th to 23d year, ho was assayor to tbe Australian Royal Mint, Sydney, a post conferred upon him at the instance of Mr. Graham, of the Mint in London. He gave up liis leis scientific pursuits, and the results of some thoughtful observations of tbo meteorology of the colony bodiod ia his " Data concerning the Olimato of Australia and l\ew Zealand.” RoturaiDg to England, with his studies at University Oollego, won various dis- tinctions, and took tbo degree of M.A. In 1SC6, after be- coming Fellow of bis college, he was made Pro- fessor of Logic and] Philosophy and Cobden Lecturer| Political Economy at Owen's College, Manchester. In tho meantime he had done much to establish :putu as a thinker by publishing his trea- tises on the value of gold, the theory of political economy, pure logic or tho logic of quality, and the coal question. Tho last of these works, which pointed to the conclusion that our coal supplies would eventually stop e ted many keen discussions, and a Royal Commission w: appointed to investigate the question it raised. But it w; not until after his connexion with Owen's College w. 'formed that Jevons did justice to himself. In 1880 ho brought out bis “ Substitution of Similars tbo True I’ri plo of Roasouing,” in 187U the “ Elementary Lessons Logic ; ” in 1871, the *' Theory of Political Economy 1874, the " Principles of Science, ” and at a later period, 11 Money and tbe Mechanism of Exchange.” lu 181 having been made Professor of Political Economy ■ ty College, London. he reunauisbed his appointment at .Owen's Oollogo. Last year” up academic work altogether, in order to devote h: solf exclusively to literature. During tho last ten yc his life he was made an F.R.S. nncl an LL.D. cf Edin- burgh, His chief works were tho “ Principles of Sciei and tho “ Thoory of Political Economy,” which body his ripest theories on tbe fundamental doctrines of economics and login. In tho former a sy6tom of logical forenco akin to that of Boole is elaborated. ’Whate may bo thought cf Professor Jovuns’s views, it is : bio that his work is distinguished by far-reaching formation, a firm grasp of the principles he sought to illustrate, and unusual vigour and closeness of reasoning. He did much to render the study of logic more popular, England from tlio reproach (uttered some years ago by 'Walter BagohotJ that “ even tho little attention paid in this country to abstract economics diverted.” 3SS5, Jir • ^^3: Smlr’onS, ladho™ neural wrn Mr, T Worses. The ,v r-ouf ■ «?«*»['• auo^ Worthington,. Mr. Ru.sc, ,o, and Mr' Richa • mountings, and the plato bore tho folluwJ ElVs l ' Cr ^ tl0 p :_ , VV iHirtin .Stanley .levons, M.A., LE D u,o it ,xy itvs irnbcr ol lmaulil ul wreathe. l„ the Cemetery Chapel nul an ,.|, I)r0(inale a(lllref , H 0 „ ^ ceased Professor, who had JiarS I Dr. Sadler tjiampstrad for k i’HE PRISONS QHApT On the motion of tne Earl of Roseber y , tETs'^iir' was read a second time. HYDE PARK CORNER. The MARQUIS of AILESBURY asked Her Majesty’s Government whether it was seriously intended to carry into effect the alterations proposed by Her Majesty’s First Commissioner of Works at ilyde Park-comer ; and, if so, when those alterations might be expected to be com- menced. The EARL of MILLTOWN said that he desired to sup- plement the question of the noble marquis by asking whether, in the event of these proposed improvements being effected, the Government would avail themselves of the opportunity thus afforded to throw open the roadway down Constitution-hill to the public. He asserted that if elusion of the public from the roadway in question would be more than erer a grievance. He was satisfied that this proposal would meet with the approval of Her Majesty, who throughout herlongand happy reign had ever considered the convenience of her subjects. (Hear, hear.) LORD SuDELEY said that he bad to state that imme- diately the vote was passed by the other House steps were at once taken to commence carrying out the great improve- ment at Hyde Park-corner. (Hear, hear.) The first thing that had to be done was to remove the reservoir from its present position to a suitable place in Hyde Park ; and teuders had already been invited for carrying this out. (Hear, hear.) The First Commissioner had not yet decided whether the arch could be moved iu ono block on rollers, • waether it would be necessary to pull it down and rebuild it, Out it was hoped that this matter would be settled in a few days. (Hear, hear.) The Government hoped that tho cutting off the corner of Green-park would entirely remove the congestion of traffic, which had for so long been a standing nuisance to that part of the metropolis, and they believed that of the numerous schemes which had been suggested, this formation of a targe '■ place ” would be the boldest and happiest solution of a somewhat difficult problem. (Hear, hear.) Ee could not give the noble marquis an exact date when the works would be completed, but lie could assure him that, the money having boon ngreed tu by Parliament, and the Metropolitan Board of ‘Works and all parties having given their consent, everything would bo done to expedite the completing of the improvements as soon as possible. (Hear, hear.) In reply to the noble lord opposite, he had to say that it was not proposed at present to open Oonsti- tution-hill to the public. T'ho question had not "been under n.-ideration. i Hear, hear.) The DUKE of CAMBRIDGE said that he was very glad that what was now proposed was to bo carried out, but he is convinced that the Mock in the traffic at Hyde Park- corner would never be got rid of until a subway bad been mado from Hamilton-place, under Piccadilly to Gro venor- place. Ho was aware that the construction of such a sub- iv would be a very expensive matter, and that all sorts Df difficulties connected with water and gas pipes and sewers would have to be encountered ; but, in his opinion, these difficulties ought to be overcome, because the block t Hyde Park-corner was really a disgrace to a great city like this. (Hear, hear.) The EARL of REDESDALE asked whether it would not be pnssiblo to place the statue of tho Duke of Wellington a pedestal opposite to Apsloy-house. LORD SUDELEY said that the First Commissioner had received a great many representations respecting what should bo done with the statue of the Duke of Wellington. Among many conllict.ing opinions, he has not yet decided what would be best to bo doDe, but if tho arch were obliged to be pulled down then be would take care that iperirnents were made to see how tho Duke would look n a pedestal in tho middle of the proposed “ place ” or Bimilar position. If the arch were not pulled dowu, but were rolled into its new position without having to tako down the statue, then it was probable it would bo better to leave it alone. (Hear, hear.) The matter was, however, Still under consideration. (Hear, hear.) TRIPOLI. EARL DE LA WARR, in rising to call the attention of Her Majesty’s Government to the position of British subjects in Tripoli, and to ask whether any provision had been made to protect them in case of emergency, said that while matters of the gravest importance in Egypt re engaging the attention of Her Majesty’s Govern ment, he should be very unwilling to bring under publio notice any question which would embarrass them in the course which they hnd thought it right to adopt. At tho same time it was impossible to pass over in silence events which were of frequent occurrence, and which arose, it could not be doubted, from an incrocsing irriUtion among the Mussulman population of North Africa and elsewhere. Thoro was evidence — abundant ovideuce — that the un- happy state of affairs in Egypt was not confined to that country only ; it had shown itself in Syria, and in other Asiatic Mussulman Slates ; it had shown itself in Tripoli ; and wherever there was a Christain and Mns- outbreak thorowas a dormant feeling of irritation which might, at any moment result in acts of violence. As regarded Tripoli, to which ho desired to ask tbo attention of Her Majesty’s Government, ho had boon assured upon reliable authority that tho state of fooling there at tho present moment w, is ono wbicli causod groat anxiety and alarm. British subjects who had been able to do so had quittod tho couutry, and many of tho poorer class of tho Maltose wero being maintained in the Island of Terba, near the coast of Tripoli, at the expense, he believed, of the Maltese Government. Now, ho did not think they rardwfT to tlwUs''Typ r AMu ejunm,.af tho* imUm =+* a awn up with care and piloted through tho Uouso Commons with dexterity. The result is that it ‘ ,a become law without an alteration, except in ^ e length of possession permitted to electric 'hting companies before local authorities can |y them up. The figures were necessarily J ntative, and the alteration was conceded without acuity. The chief value of tho measure lies in the ct that it distinctly lays down a now principle the guidance of tho Legislature in granting ^ nopolii.s, and ono which cannot hut alloct future .posals for buying up, in the interest of tlio ' l blic, those which alroady exist. Mr. Fawcett's reel Tost Bill was also managed with so much motion that all sorious opposition m rliamerut was averted. Nothing now stands _ NG OASES. / Pacf /V^ PROFESSOR JEVONS DROWNfiDi Professor Jevons was drowned on Monday at Bexhill, Sussex, wbne battling An u^uest was held yesterday morning. The deceased’s body w«e seen floating in the water by a labourer, who brought it ashore and found life extinct. The clothes of the deceased were lying oa the beach. The sea is dangerous at that part for persons who are not good swimmers, especially at higu water The jury returned a verdict of "Accidental death.” Professor William Stanley Jevons. M.A., F R S , wa- born in 1835 He was appointed P- ofeaaor of Bogie at. Owens College, Manchester, in 1866, and Professor of Political Economy in University College in 1876. Another account says: — Professor Jevons was spending the season with his wife and family at Bexhill. He lef'. Mrs Jevon 3 and the children on the sands, and witbio an hour bis body was seen floating in the water near a dangerous spot called Galley hill. It is supposed tha’ Professor Jevons went there to bathe, his clothes, wish a towel, being found on the beach. He was an expert swimmer, but the shore in this local! y falls, and the tide, which has a strong sac, must have carried him under and suffocated him before he could recover self control. —At an inquest held on the body at the Queen’s Head Hotel, Bexhill, Mrs Jevons stated that her husband, who waB aged 46, had expressed a desire to bathe, but sbe urged him not to do so as ha was not in good health. When her husband left her on Sunday morning hs said nothing about bathing . — Samuel Watson, a ooaastguarde man, deposed that the spot where the body was touad was about the worst that could be selected for bathing. —The jury returned a verdict of " Accidental death by drowning.” The melanoholy death of Professor Jevons has oreatel a painful mpresBion at Bexhill, where he was well known, at Manchester, and elsewhere. After the in quest, the body of deceased was removed to the Chest nuts, Hampstead, the London residence of the family, where Mrs Jevons and her children *»o ts reai nu. conjectured o> toe friends o» tdrofe^aor Javans thv, he was tbmpted by the genial weather to take a bach and that the water acted upon bis heart, whioh was known to be somewhat weak, and that becoming uncon- scious be was drowned. . Chester dist* o - 1 ~ . .ended Mr Rose bad said it wa- Jaeccntinuc-a expenditure wl kept the dividend down, and he went on to speak < spirited policy of encroachment. When any on* aide the room taxed him with a spir policy o! encroachment, he tried to pin i person, and ask b»m to point out in what part of] system that policy was followed. He poll out that the Great Northern was now in m districts originally held by the Midland Company, shareholders would follow bis example, and keep tl capital in the Midland Company, instead of eubsc it to other companies, those companies would not ba i to encroach upon the Midland district, (Laughter,) to the suggestion that the estimated receipts : expenditure should be given every week, ha was no* favour of it. Such estimates must ba fallacious, and did not like to encourage outside people on the St Exchange or anywhere else to speeu) te more than t now did with Midland shares. (Applause.) The resolution was adopted without dissent. On the motion of the Chairman, seconded by Deputy -Chairman, the usual dividend resolution adopted. The Chairman then moved— That the director be authorised to borrow on mortgage, under pow*rn of “The Midland Railway (Additional Powers) Act, 11 "TLe Loudon and North-Western and Midland Railway Oompa Act, 1831,” and T£e Cheshire Lines Act, 1831,” any sum or sua money not exceeding in the whole £636 CCQ, and that it be raise the creation and issue of stock to a corresponding amount, t£ termed '* Midland Railway Debenture Stock,” instead of borro> the same. Tbia was seconded by the Deputy Chairman, carried unanimously. Tbe Ohaibman then moved a resolution to the ef that, such an amount of Five per Cent, Consolidated 1 petual Preference Stock of the Midland Company she be raised as would yield an annual dividend equal to amount of the annual dividend payable u tbe oi dinary shares of tbe Wolverhamp and Wall sail Railway Company, and the i* of such stock to the proprietors of such ordin shares in exchange for and in proportion to the ehi be M by them respectively. This was seconded by the Deputy- Chairman, carried without dissent, Mr Harrison moved tbe re-election of the Audit C PEE FACE. I am desirous of prefixing to the second edition of the following work a few explanations which may tend to prevent misapprehension of its pur- pose and conclusions. : The expression “exhaustion of our coal mines,” states the subject in the briefest form, hut is sure to convey erroneous notions to those who do not reflect upon the long series of changes in our industrial condition which must result from the gradual deepening of our coal mines " and the increased price of fuel. Many persons perhaps entertain a vague notion that some day our coal seams will be found emptied to the bottom, and swept clean like a coal-cellar. Our fires and furnaces, they think, will then be suddenly extinguished, and cold and darkness will he left to reign over a depopulated country. It is almost needless to say, however, that our b vi Preface. mines are literally inexhaustible. W e cannot get to the bottom of them ; and though we may some clay have to pay dear for fuel, it will never be positively wanting. I have occasionally spoken in the following pages of “the end,” of the “instability of our position,” and so forth. When considered in connexion with the context, or with expres- sions and qualifications in other parts of the volume, it will he obvious that I mean not the end or overturn of the nation, but the end of the present progressive condition of the kingdom. If there be a few expressions which go beyond this, I should regard them as specu- lative only, and should not maintain them as an essential part of the conclusions. Renewed reflection has convinced me that my main position is only too strong and true. It is simply that we cannot long progress as we are now doing. I give the usual scientific reasons for .supposing that coal must confer mighty influence and advantages upon its rich possessor, and I show that we now use much more of this invaluable aid than all other coun- tries put together. But it is impossible we Preface. vii should long maintain so singular a position ; not only must we meet some limit within our own country, hut we must witness the coal produce of other countries approximating to our own, and ultimately passing it. At a future time, then, we shall hare influ- ences acting against us which are now acting strongly with us. We may even then retain no inconsiderable share of the world’s trade, hut it is impossible that we should go on expanding as we are now doing. Our motion must he reduced to rest, and it is to this change my attention is directed. How long we may exist in a stationary condition I, for one, should never attempt to conjecture. The question here treated regards the length of time that- we may go on rising, and the height of prosperity and wealth to which we may attain. Tew will doubt, I think, after examining the subject, that we cannot long rise as we are now doing. Even when the question is thus narrowed I know there will he no want of opponents. Some rather hasty thinkers will at once cut the ground from under me, and say that they never supposed we should long progress as we b 2 Preface. viii are doing, nor do they desire it. I wonld make two remarks in answer. Firstly, have they taken time to think what is involved in bringing a great and growing nation to a stand ? It is easy to set a boulder rolling on the mountain-side ; it is perilous to try to stop it. It is just such an adverse change in the rate of progress of a nation which is galling and perilous. Since we began to deve- lop the general use of coal, about a century ago, we have become accustomed to an almost y ea rly expansion of trade and employment. Within the last twenty years everything has tended to intensify our prosperity, and the results are seen in the extraordinary facts con- cerning the prevalence of marriage, which I have explained in pp. 197 — 200, and to which I should wish to draw special attention. It is not difficult to see, then, that we must either maintain the expansion of our trade and em- ployment, or else witness a sore pressure of population and a great exodus of our people. The fact is, that many of my opponents simply concede the point I am endeavouring to ]wove without foreseeing the results, and without, Preface. ix again, giving any reasons in support of their position. Secondly, I do not know why this nation should not go on rising to a pitch of greatness as inconceivable now as our present position would have been inconceivable a century ago. I believe that our industrial and political genius and energy, used with honesty, are equal to any- thing. It is only our gross material resources which are limited. Here is a definite cause why we cannot always advance. Other opponents bring a more subtle objec- tion. They say that the coal we use affords no measure of our industry. At a future time, instead of exporting coal, or crude iron, we may produce elaborate and artistic commodities depending less on the use of coal than the skill and taste of the workman. This change is one which I anticipated (see p. 347). It would con- stitute a radical change in our industry. We have no peculiar monopoly in art, and skill, and science as we now have in coal. That by art and handicraft manufactures we might maintain a moderate trade is not to be denied, hut all notions of manufacturing and maritime supre- X Preface. macy must then he relinquished. Those persons very much mistake the power of coal, and steam, and iron, who think that it is now fully felt and exhibited ; it will he almost indefinitely greater in future years than it now is. Science points to this conclusion, and common observation con- firms it. These opponents, then, likewise concede what I am trying to show, without feeling how much they concede. They do not seem to know which is the sharp edge of the argument. A further class of opponents feel the growing power of coal, but repose upon the notion that economy in its use will rescue us. If coal be- come twice as dear as it is, hut our engines are made to produce twice as much result with the same coal, the cost of steam-power will remain as before. These opponents, however, overlook two prime points of the subject. They forget that economy of fuel leads to a great increase of consumption, as shown in the chapter on the subject ; and, secondly, they forget that other nations can use improved engines as well as our- selves, so that our comparative position will not be much improved. It is true that where fuel is cheap it is wasted, Preface. xi and where it is dear it is economised. The finest engines are those in Cornwall, or in steam-vessels plying in distant parts of the ocean. It is credibly stated, too, that a manfacturer often spends no more in fuel where it is dear than where it is cheap. But persons will commit a great oversight here if they overlook the cost of an improved and complicated engine, which both in its first cost, , and its maintenance, is higher than that of aj • simple one. The question is one of capital against { current expenditure. It iswell known that nothing '' so presses upon trade as the necessity for a large capital expenditure ; it is so much more risked, so much more to pay interest on, and so much more abstracted from the trading capital. The fact is, that a wasteful engine pays better where “ coals are cheap than a more perfect' but costly engine. Bourne, in his “ Treatise on the Steam-—. Engine,” expressly recommends a simple and Avasteful engine Avhere coals are cheap. The state of the matter is as follows : — "Where coal is dear, but there are other reasons for re- quiring motive poAver, elaborate engines may be profitably used, and may partly reduce the cost of the poAver. xii Preface. But if coal be dear in one place and cheap in another, motive power will necessarily he cheaper where coal is cheap, because there the option of using either simple or perfect engines is enjoyed. It is needless to say that any improvement of the engine which does not make it more costly will readily be adopted, especially by an enterprising and ingenious people like the Americans. I take it, therefore, that if there be any strong cause exclusive of the possession of coal which will tend to keep manufactures here, economy of fuel and a large employment of capital may neutralise in some degree the increased cost of motive power. But so far as cheap fuel and power is the exciting cause of manufactures, these must pass to where fuel is cheapest, especially when it is in the hands of persons as energetic and ingenious as ourselves. Finally, I may mention the argument of Mr. Yivian, that the art of coal mining will advance so that coal may be drawn from great depths without any material increase of cost. The very moderate rise of price as yet experienced, appa- rently supports this view, and for my own part I entertain no doubt that a mine might, if Preface. Xlll necessary, be driven to the depth of 5,000 feet. The cost at which it must he done, however, is quite another matter. The expenditure on the shaft increases in a far higher ratio than its depth ; the influence of this expenditure is more than can be readily estimated, because it is risked in the first instance, and in not a few cases is wholly lost ; and not only must th0 capital itself be repaid, but considerable amounts of compound and simple interest must be met, in j order that the undertaking shall be profitable. Were the depth of mines so slight an incon- venience as Mr. Vivian would make it appear, I think we should have more deej) mines. It is now forty years since the Monkwearmouth Pit was commenced, and I believe that only one deeper pit has since been undertaken, that at Dukinfield, seventeen years ago. We cannot wonder that there are so few deep pits, when we consider that it required twenty years’ labour to complete the Monkwearmouth pit, in consequence of the serious obstacles encountered (see p. S3). The Dukinfield Deep Pit, begun in June, 18-19, was more fortunate, and reached the expected coal at a depth of 2,150 feet in March, 1S59. xiv Preface. Having now candidly mentioned and discussed the strongest objections brought against the views stated in the following work, I may fairly ask the reader that he will treat these views with candour, not separating any statement from its qualifications and conditions. I have some reason to complain that this has not been done hitherto. A correspondent of the Times and Mining Journal has represented it as a conse- quence of my suppositions that there would, in 1961, be a population of 576 millions of people in this country, a statement wholly without foundation in the following pages. One journal, the (London) Examiner,' has so far misrepresented me, that the editorial writer, after expressly stating that he has read the book with care, says : — “ Professor Jevons shrinks from endorsing the 1,000 feet theory, and stops short at 2,500 ; hut why there precisely, rather than anywhere else, he does not tell us. All we can gather from him on the subject is, that Avhen we get to that depth a complete supply of foreign coals will come in from Pennsylvania and elsewhere,” If the above he compared with jbJxaiinnf r, May !*(->(>. Preface. xv wliat I have really said on the subjects on p. 57, and in chapter xiii., it will be seen that my state- ments are represented as the direct opposite of what they are. The whole article is full of almost equal misrepresentations. I have been surprised to find how far the views expressed in some of the following chapters are merely an explicit statement of those long enter- tained by men of great eminence. The manner in wdiich Mr. Mill mentioned this work in his remarkable speech on the National Debt, 1 was in the highest degree gratifying. I have found indeed, that most of what I said concerning the National Debt was unconsciously derived from Mr. Mill’s own works. I have repeated it un- changed in this edition, with the exception of adding references. The fact is that no writer can approach the subject of Political Economy with- out falling into the deepest obligations to Mr. Mill, and it is as impossible as it is needless always to specify what we owe to a writer of such great eminence, and such wide - spread influence. Sir John Herschel has most kindly expressed 1 House of Commons, April 17th, 1666. XVI Preface. a general concurrence in my views, and has even said that this work contained “ a mass of con- siderations, that as I read them seemed an echo of what I have long thought and felt about our present commercial progress.” As regards the supremacy of coal as a source of heat and power, and the impossibility of finding a substitute, I have again only inter- preted the opinions of Professor Tyndall. He has kindly allowed me to extract the following from a recent letter with which he favoured me : — “ I see no prospect of any substitute being found for coal, as a source of motive power. We have, it is true, our winds and streams and tides ; and we have the beams of the sun. But j these are common to all the world. We cannot ' .make head against a nation which, in addition to I- those sources of power, possesses the power of pcoal. We may enjoy a multiple of their physical Pand intellectual energy, and still be unable to hold our own against a people which possesses abundance of coal ; and we should have, in my opinion, no chance whatever in a race with a nation which, in addition to abundant coal, has energy and intelligence approximately equal to our own. Preface. xvn “It is no new thing for me to affirm in my public lectures that the destiny of this nation is not in the hands of its statesmen but in those of its coal-owners ; and that while the orators of St. Stephen’s are unconscious of the fact, the very lifeblood of this country is flowing away.” An ri in the following passage Professor Tyndall has lately summed up the sources of power: — “ Wherever two atoms capable of uniting to- gether by their mutual attractions exist sepa- rately, they form a store of potential energy. Thus our woods, forests, and coal-fields on the one hand, and our atmospheric oxygen on the other, constitute a vast store of energy of this hind — vast, hut far from infinite. We have, besides our coal-fields, bodies in the metallic condition more or less sparsely distributed in the earth’s crust. These bodies can be oxydised, and hence are, so far as they go, stores of potential energy. But the attractions of the great mass of the earth’s crust are already satisfied, and from them no further energy can possibly be obtained. Ages ago the elementary constituents of our rocks clashed together and produced the motion of heat, which was taken up by the ether and xviii Preface. carried away through stellar space. It is lost for ever as far as we are concerned. In those ages the hot conflict of carbon, oxygen, and calcium produced the chalk and limestone bills which are now cold; and from this carbon, oxygen, and calcium no further energy can be derived. And so it is with almost all the other constituents of the earth’s crust. They took their present form in obedience to molecular force; they turned their potential energy into dynamic, and gave it to the universe ages before man appeared upon this planet. Tor him a residue of power is left, vast truly in relation to the life and wants of an individual, but exceed- ingly minute in comparison with the earth’s primitive store.” 1 I learn from Mr. Hunt that his forthcoming report will show the production of coal in the United Kingdom in 1865 to be about ninety-five millions of tons, giving a considerable increase over the great total of 1864. I would direct the attention of those who think the failure of coal so absurd a notion, and who, perhaps, would add that petroleum can 1 Fortnightly Jtrrim, Dec. 31, 1S(!5, p. 143. Preface. xix take the place of coal when necessary, to the results of an inquiry lately undertaken by Mr. Hunt concerning an increase of supply of cannel coal. He finds, after a minute personal and local inquiry, that the present yearly pro- duction of 1,418,176 tons might he raised to 8,172,000 tons should the gas companies demand it and offer a sufficient price. But it appears to he clear that such a supply could not he main- tained for many years. The Wigan cannel is estimated to last twenty years at the longest. Ten years of the assumed production would ex- haust the North Wales cannel, and two autho- rities, Mr. Binnev and Mr. J. J. Landale, agree that the Boghead oil-making coal will not last many years. It is evident, in short, that the sudden demand for the manufacture of petroleum, added to the steady and rising demand of the gas works, will use up the peculiar and finest beds of oil and gas-making coals in a very brief period. I have to thank Mr. Robert Hunt not only for his kindness in supplying me with a copy of the unpublished report containing these facts, but also for his readiness in furnishing the latest XX Preface. available information from the Mining Record Office. The operations of this most useful insti- tution are still crippled, in spite of Mr. Hunt’s constant exertions, by the want of proper power. It was established at the suggestion of the British Association, moved by Mr. Thomas Sopwith, to preserve the plans of abandoned mines in order that the future recovery of coal or minerals now left unworked might be facilitated, and the danger from irruptions of water and foul air from forgotten workings be averted. Colliery owners are, indeed, obliged to possess plans of their workings, and to exhibit them to the Government Inspectors of Mines, but they are not obliged to deposit copies in the Mining Record Office, on the ground of non- interference with vested interests. The deposit of plans then being voluntary, very few are re- ceived, and almost all are lost or destroyed soon after the closing of the colliery. Such plans, however, are of national importance, like re- gisters of births, deaths, and marriages, or wills and other records. It is obvious that their de- struction should be rendered illegal and penal, and that after the closing of a colliery, when the Preface. xxi interference with private interests becomes ima- ginary, they should be compulsorily deposited in the Mining Record Office. It is more than twenty years since Mr. Sopwith urged these views in his remarkable pamphlet on “ The National Importance of preserving Mining Records .” 1 Yet our legislation remains as it was in truly English fashion. This subject, I hope, will now receive proper attention from the Royal Commission which is about to be ap- pointed to inquire into the subject of our coal supply. My great obligations to Mr. Hull will he clearly seen in several parts of the work. I am inclined to think that a careful consider- ation of my arguments null show them to he less speculative and more practical than appears at first sight. I have carefully avoided anything like mere romance and speculation. It would he romance to picture the New Zealander moralizing over the ruins of London Bridge, or to imagine the time when England will be a mere name in history. Some day Britain may he known as a second Crete, a sea-born island crowned by See p. 20 infra. C xxii Preface. ninety cities. Like the Cretans, we are ruled by laws more divine than human ; we teach the use of metals, and clear the seas of robbers, and exert a mild governance over the coasts and islands. We too like Crete may form in remote history but a brief and half-forgotten link in the transmission of the arts from the East towards the West — transmission not without improve- ment. But the subjectof the following chapters, rightly regarded, seems to me to have an immediate and practical importance. It brings us face to face with duties of the most difficult and weighty character — duties which we have too long de- ferred and ignored. So long as future genera- tions seemed likely for an indefinite period to be more numerous and comparatively richer than ourselves, there was some excuse for trusting to time for the amelioration of our people. But the moment we begin to see a limit to the in- crease of our wealth and numbers, we must feel a new responsibility. We must begin to allow that we can do to-day what we cannot so well do to-morrow. It is surely in the moment when prosperity is greatest ; when the revenue is ex- Preface. xxiii paneling most rapidly and spontaneously; when employment is abundant for all, and wages rising, and wealth accumulating so that individuals hardly know how to expend it — then it is that an effort can best he made, and perhaps only he made, to raise the character of the people appreciably. It is a melancholy fact which no Englishman dare deny or attempt to palliate, that the whole structure of our wealth and refined civilization is built upon a basis of ignorance and pauperism and vice, into the particulars of which we hardly care to inquire. We are not entirely responsible for this. It is the consequence of tendencies which have operated for centuries past. But we are now under a fearful responsibility that, in the full fruition of the wealth and power which free trade and the lavish use of our resources are conferring upon us, we should not omit any prac- ticable remedy. If we allow this period to pass without far more extensive and systematic exer- tions than we are now making, we shall suffer just retribution. It is not hard to point out what kind of mea- sures are here referred to. The ignorance, im- providence, and brutish drunkenness of our lower c 2 XXIV Preface. working classes must be dispelled by a general system of education, which may effect for a future generation what is hopeless for the present generation. One preparatory and indispensable measure, however, is a far more general restric- tion on the employment of children in manu- facture. At present it may almost be said to be profitable to breed little slaves and put them to labour early, so as to get earnings out of them before they have a will of their own. A worse premium upon improvidence and future wretch- edness could not be imagined. Mr. Baker, the Inspector of Factories in South Staffordshire, has given a deplorable account of the way in which women and children are em- ployed in the brick-yards ; and in the South Wales ironworks I have myself seen similar scenes, which would be incredible if described. Dr. Morgan holds that our manufacturing popu- lation is becoming degenerate; and it must be so unless, as our manufacturing system grows, corresponding restrictions are placed upon the employment of infant labour. It will be said that we cannot deprive parents of their children’s earnings. If we cannot do it Preface. xxv now, we can never do it ; and wretched, indeed, must be a kingdom which depends for subsistence upon infant labour. But we can do it to the ultimate advantage of all, and we are hound to do it from regard to the children themselves : and anything which we may lose or spend now in education and loss of labour will he repaid many times over by the increased efficiency of labour in the next generation. Reflection will show that we ought not to think of interfering with the free use of the material wealth which Providence has placed at our dis- posal, but that our duties wholly consist in the earnest and wise application of it. We may spend it on the one hand in increased luxury and ostentation and corruption, and we shall be blamed. We may spend it on the other hand in raising the social and moral condition of the people, and in reducing the burdens of future generations. Even, if our successors be less happily placed than ourselves they will not then blame us. To some it might seem that no good can come from contemplating the weakness of our national position. Discouragement and loss of prestige XXVI Preface. could alone apparently result. But this is a very superficial view, and the truth, I trust, is far otherwise. Even the habitual contemplation of death injures no man of any strength of mind. It rather nerves him to think and act justly while it is yet day. As a nation we have too much put off for the hour what we ought to have done at once. We are now in the full morning of our national prosperity, and are approaching noon. Yet we have hardly begun to pay the moral and the social debts to millions of our countrymen which we must pay before the evening. CONTENTS. PAGE PREFACE T CHAPTE R I. INTRODUCTION AND OUTLINE .... 1 CHAPTER II. OPINIONS OF PREVIOUS WRITERS 15 CHAPTER III. OP.OT.OGIOAT, ASPECTS OF THE QUESTION 36 CHAPTER IV. O P TTTF. COST OP COAL MINING 56 CHAPTER^ V. OP TTTF. PRICE OP COAL 75 CHAPTER VI. OP BRITISH INVENTION 85 CHAPTER VII. OP THE ECONOMY OF FUEL 122 CHAPTER VIII. OF SUPPOSED SUBSTITUTES FOR COAL . , , , , , . , . 138 XXVI Contents. PAGFi CH APTER TX. OF THE NATURAL LAW OF SOCIAL GROWTH , . 269 CH APTER X. OF THE GROWTH AND MIGRAT IONS OF OUR POPULATION . . 179 CHAP TER XT OF THE CHANG E AND PROGRESS OF OUR INDUSTRY .... 206 CHAPTER X TT. OF OU R CONSU MPTI ON OF COAL 2.10 CHAPTER XI TT . OF THE EXPORT AND IMPORT OF COAL 9AP. CHAPTER XIV. OF THE COMPARAT IVE COAL RESOURCES OF DIFFERENT COUNTRIES, 279 CHAPTER XV. OF THE IRON TRADE ■ ■ ■ 29/ CHAPTER XVI. PROBLEM OF THE TRADING BODIES] 330 CHAPTER XVII. OF TAXES AND THE NATIONAL DEBT 354 CHAPTER XVIII CONCLUDING REFLECTIONS 3^0 INDEX 377 THE COAL QUESTION. CHAPTER, I. INTRODUCTION AND OUTLINE. Day by day it becomes more evident that the Coal we happily possess in excellent quality and abundance is the mainspring of modern material civilization. As the source of fire, it is the source at once of mechanical motion and of chemical change. Accordingly it is the chief agent in almost every improvement or discovery in the arts which the present age brings forth. It is to us indispensable for domestic purposes, and it has of late years been found to yield a series of organic substances, which puzzle us by their complexity, please us by their beautiful colours, and serve us by their various utility. B 2 The Coal Question. And as the source especially of steam and iron, coal is all powerful. This age has been called the Iron Age, and it is true that iron is the material of most great novelties. By its strength, endurance, and wide range of qualities, this metal is fitted to be the fulcrum and lever of great works, while steam is the motive power. But coal alone can command in sufficient abundance either the iron or the steam ; and coal, therefore, commands this age — the Age of Coal. Coal in truth stands not beside hut entirely above all other commodities. It is the material energy of the country — the universal aid — the factor in everything -we do. With coal almost any feat is possible or easy; without it we are thrown hack into the laborious poverty of early times. With such facts familiarly before us, it can be no matter of surprise that year by year we make larger draughts upon a material of such myriad qualities — of such miraculous powers. But it is at the same time impossible that men of fore- sight should not turn to compare with some anxiety the masses yearly drawn with the quan- tities known or supposed to lie within these islands. Geologists of eminence, acquainted with the Introduction and Outline. 3 contents of onr strata, and accustomed, in the study of tlieir great science, to look over long periods of time with judgment and enlighten- ment, were long ago painfully struck by the essentially limited nature of our main wealth. And though others have been found to reassure the public, roundly asserting that all anticipa- tions of exhaustion are groundless and absurd, and “may be deferred for an indefinite period,” yet misgivings have constantly recurred to those really examining the question. Not long since the subject acquired new weight when promi- nently brought forward by Sir W. Armstrong in his Address to the British Association, at New- castle, the very birthplace of the coal trade. This question concerning the duration of our present cheap supplies of coal cannot but excite deep interest and anxiety wherever or whenever it is mentioned : for a little reflection will show that coal is almost the sole necessary basis of our material power, and is that, consequently, which gives efficiency to our moral and intellectual capabilities. England’s manufacturing and com- mercial greatness, at least, is at stake in this question, nor can we be sure that material decay may not involve us in moral and intellectual retrogression. And as there is no part of the 4< The Coal Question. civilized world where the life of our true aud beneficent Commonwealth can he a matter of indifference, so, above all, to an Englishman who knows the grand and steadfast course his country has pursued to its present point, its future must he a matter of almost personal soli- citude and affection. The thoughtless and selfish, indeed, who fear any interference with the enjoyment of the pre- sent, will be apt to stigmatise all reasoning about the future as absurd and chimerical. But the opinions of such are closely guided by their wishes. It is true that at the best we see dimly into the future, hut those who acknowledge their duty to posterity will feel impelled to use their foresight upon what facts and guiding principles we do possess. Though many data are at pre- sent wanting or doubtful, our conclusions may he rendered so far probable as to lead to further inquiries upon a subject of such overwhelming importance. And we ought not at least to delay disj)ersing a set of plausible fallacies about the economy of fuel, and the discovery of substitutes for coal, which at present obscure the critical nature of the question, and are eagerly passed about among those who like to believe that we have an indefinite period of prosperity before us. Introduction and Outline. 5 The writers who have hitherto discussed this question, being chiefly geologists, have of ne- cessity treated it casually, and in a one-sided manner. There are several reasons why it should now receive fuller consideration. In the first place, the accomplishment of a Tree Trade policy, the repeal of many laws that tended to restrain our industrial progress, and the very unusual clause in the Trench Treaty which secures a free export of coals for some years to come, are all events tending to an indefinite increase of the consumption of coal. On the other hand, two most useful systems of Government inquiry have lately furnished us with new and accurate in- formation hearing upon the question ; the Geo- logical Survey now gives some degree of certainty to our estimates of the coal existing within our reach, while the returns of mineral statistics inform us very exactly of the amount of coal consumed. Taking advantage of such information, I ven- ture to try and shape out a first rough approxi- mation to the probable progress of our industry and consumption of coal in a system of free industry. We of course deal only with what is probable. It is the duty of a careful writer not to reject facts or circumstances because they are 6 The Coal Question. only probable, but to state everything with its clue weight of probability. It will be my fore- most desire to discriminate certainty and doubt, knowledge and ignorance — to state those data we want, as well as those we have. But I must also draw attention to principles governing this subject, which have rather the certainty of natural laws than the fickleness of statistical numbers. It will be apparent that the first seven of the following chapters are mainly devoted to the physical data of this question, and are of an introductory character. The remaining chapters, which treat of the social and commercial aspects of the subject, constitute the more essential part of the present inquiry. It is this part of the subject which seems to me to have been too much overlooked by those who have ex- pressed opinions concerning the duration of our coal supplies. I have endeavoured to present a pretty com- plete outline of the available information in union with the arguments which the facts sug- gest. But such is the extent and complexity of the subject that it is impossible to notice all the bearings of fact upon fact. The chapters, therefore, have rather the character of essays Introduction and Outline. 7 treating of the more important aspects of the question ; and I may here suitably devote a few words to pointing oat the particular pur- pose of each chapter, and the hearings of one upon the other. I commence by citing the opinions of earlier writers, who have more or less shadowed forth my conclusions ; and I also quote Mr. Hull’s esti- mate of the coal existing in England, and adopt it as the geological datum of my arguments. In considering the geological aspects of the question, I endeavour to give some notion of the way in which an estimate of the existing coal is made, and of the degree of certainty at- taching to it, deferring to the chapter upon Coal Mining the question of the depth to which we can follow seams of coal. It is shown that in all probability there is no precise physical limit of deep mining, but that the growing diffi- culties of management and extraction of coal in a very deep mine must greatly enhance its price. It is by this rise of price that gradual exhaustion will be manifested, and its deplorable effects occasioned. I naturally pass to consider whether there are yet in the cost of coal any present signs of exhaustion ; it appears that there has been no 8 The Coal Question. recent rise of importance, but that, at the same time, the high price demanded for coals drawn from some of the deepest pits indicates the high price that must in time he demanded for even ordinary coals. A distinct division of the inquiry, comprising chapters vi. vii. and viii., treats of inventions in regard to the use of coal. It is shown that we owe almost all our arts to continental na- tions, except those great arts which have been called into use here hy the cheapness and excel- lence of our coal. It is shown that the constant tendency of discovery is to render coal a more and more efficient agent, while there is no pro- bability that when our coal is used up any more powerful substitute will be forthcoming. Nor will the economical use of coal reduce its con- sumption. On the contrary, economy renders the employment of coal more profitable, and thus the present demand for coal is increased, and the advantage is more strongly thrown upon the side of those who will in the future have the cheapest supplies. As it is in a subsequent chapter on the Export and Import of Coal conclusively shown that we cannot make up for a future want of coal hy importation from other countries, it will appear that there is no reasonable prospect of Introduction and Outline. 9 any relief from a future want of the main agent of industry . TVe must lose that lohich constitutes our peculiar energy. And considering how greatly our manufactures and navigation depend upon coal, and how vast is our consumption of it com- pared with that of other nations, it cannot he supposed we shall do without coal more than a fraction of what we do with it. I then turn to a totally different aspect of the question, leading to some estimate of the duration of our prosperity. I first explain the natural principle of popula- tion, that a nation tends to multiply itself at a constant rate, so as to receive not equal additions in equal times, hut additions rapidly growing greater and greater. In the chapter on Popula- tion it is incidentally pointed out that the nation, as a whole, has rapidly grown more numerous from the time when the steam-engine and other inventions involving the consumption of coal came into use. Until about 1820 the agricul- tural and manufacturing populations increased about equally. But the former then became excessive, occasioning great pauperism, while it is only our towns and coal and iron districts which have afforded any scope for a rapid and continuous increase. 10 The Goal Question. The more nearly, too, we approach industry concerned directly with coal, the more rapid and constant is the rate of growth. The progress indeed of almost every part of our population has clearly been checked by emigration, but that this emigration is not due to pressure at home is plain from the greatly increased frequency of marriages in the last ten or fifteen years. And though this emigration temporarily checks our growth in mere numbers, it greatly promotes our welfare, and tends to induce greater future growths of population. Attention is then drawn to the rapid and constant rate of multiplication displayed by the iron, cotton, shipping, and other great branches of our industry, the progress of which is in general quite unchecked up to the present time. The consumption of coal, there is every reason to suppose, has similarly been multiplying itself at a growing rate. The present rate of increase of our coal consumption is then ascertained, and it is shown that, should the consumption multiply for rather more than a century at the same rate , the average depth of our coal-mines would he 4,000 feet, and the average price of coal much higher than the highest price now paid for the finest kinds of coal. Introduction and Outline. 11 It is thence simply inferred that toe cannot, tony continue our present rate of progress. The first check to our growing prosperity, however, must render our population excessive. Emigra- tion may relieve it, and hy exciting increased trade tend to keep up our progress ; hut after a time we must either sink down into poverty, adopting wholly new habits, or else witness a constant annual exodus of the youth of the country. It is further pointed out that the ultimate results will he to render labour so abun- dant in the United States that our iron manufac- tures will he underbid by the unrivalled iron and coal resources of Pennsylvania ; and in a separate chapter it is shown that the crude iron manufac- ture will, in all probability, be our first loss, while it is impossible to say how much of our manufactures may not follow it. Suggestions for checking the waste and use of coal are briefly discussed, but the general con- viction must force itself upon the mind, that restrictive legislation may mar but cannot mend the natural course of industrial development. Such is a general outline of my arguments and conclusions. When I commenced studying this question, I had little thought of some of the results, and 12 The Coal Question. I might well hesitate at asserting things so little accordant with the unbounded confidence of the present day. But as serious misgivings do already exist, some discussion is necessary to set them at rest, or to confirm them, and perhaps to modify our views. And in entering on such a discussion, an unreserved, and even an over- drawn, statement of the adverse circumstances, is better than weak reticence. If my conclusions are at all true, they cannot too soon he recog- nised and kept in mind ; if mistaken, I shall he among the first to rejoice at a vindication of our country’s resources from all misgivings. Bor my own part, I am convinced that this question must before long force itself upon our attention with painful urgency. It cannot long he shirked and shelved. It must rise by degrees into the position of a great national and perhaps a party question, antithetical to that of Free Trade. There will be a Conservative Party, desirous, at all cost, to secure the continued and exclusive prosperity of tiiis country as a main bulwark of the general good. On the other hand, there will he the Liberal Party, less cautious, more trustful in abstract principles and the unfettered tendencies of nature. JBulwer, in one of his Caxtonian Essays, has Introduction and Outline. 13 described, with all Ms usual felicity of thought and language, the confliction of these two great parties. They have fought many battles upon this soil already, and the result as yet is that wonderful union of stability and change, of the good old and the good new, which makes the English Constitution. But if it shall seem that this is not to last indefinitely — that some of our latest determina- tions of policy lead directly to the exhaustion of our main wealth — the letting down of our main- spring — I know not how to express the difficulty of the moral and political questions which will arise. Some will Avisli to hold to our adopted prin- ciples, and leave commerce and the consumption of coal unchecked even to the last ; while others, subordinating commerce to purposes of a higher nature, will tend to the prohibition of coal ex- ports, the restriction of trade, and the adoption of eA r ery means of sparing the fuel which makes our welfare and supports oiu* influence upon the nations of the world. This is a question of that almost religious importance Avhich needs the separate study and determination of eA'ery intelligent person. And if we find that AA _ e must yield before the disposi- tion of material Avealth, which is the work of a 14 The Coal Question. higher Providence, we need not give way to weak discouragement concerning the future, but should rather learn to take an elevated view of our undoubted duties and opportunities in the present. Opinions of Previous Writers. 15 CHAPTER II. OPINIONS OF PREVIOUS WRITERS. One of the earliest writers who conceived it was possible to exhaust our coal mines was John Williams, a mineral surveyor. In his “Natural History of the Mineral Kingdom,” first published in 1789, he gave a chapter to the consideration of “The Limited Quantity of Coal of Britain .” His remarks are highly intelligent, and prove him to be one of the first to appreciate the value of coal, and to foresee the consequences which must some time result from its failure. This event he rather prematurely apprehended; but in those days, when no statistics had been col- lected, and a geological map was un thought of, accurate notions were not to be expected. Still, his views on this subject may be read with profit, even at the present day. Sir John Sinclair, in his great Statistical Ac- count of Scotland, 1 took a most enlightened view 1 Vol. xii. ]i, .ill. 16 The Goal Question. of the importance of coal; and, in noticing the Eifeshire coal-field, expressed considerable fears as to a future exhaustion of our mines. He correctly contrasted the fixed extent of a coal- field with the ever-growing nature of the con- sumption of coal. In 1812 Robert Bald, another Scotch writer, in his very intelligent “ General View of the Coal Trade of Scotland,” showed most clearly how surely and rapidly a consumption, growing in a “quick, increasing series,” 1 must overcome a fixed store, however large. Even if the Gram- pian mountains, he said, 2 were composed of coal, we would ultimately bring down their summits, and make them level with the vales. In later years, the esteemed geologist, Dr. Buckland, most prominently and earnestly brought this subject before the public, both in his evidence before the Parliamentary Commit- tees of 1830 and 1835, and in his celebrated “Bridgewater Treatise.” 3 On every suitable occasion he implored the country to allow no waste of an article so invaluable as coal. Many geologists, and other writers, without 1 P. 94. = P. 97. 3 See also his Address to the Geological Society, Feb. 19tli, 1841, p. 41. Opinions of Previous TFriters. 17 fully comprehending the subject, have made so- called estimates of the duration of the Newcastle coal-field. Half a century ago, this field was so much the most important and well known, that it took the whole attention of English writers. The great fields of South Wales and Scotland, in fact, were scarcely opened. But those who did not dream of the whole coal-fields of Great Britain being capable of exhaustion, were early struck by the progressive failure of the celebrated Newcastle seams. Those concerned in the coal trade know for how many years each colliery is considered good ; and perhaps, like George Ste- phenson in early youth, have had their homes more than once moved and broken up by the working out of a colliery. 1 It is not possible for such men to shut their eyes altogether to the facts. I give, on the following page, a tabular sum- mary of the chief estimates of the duration of the Newcastle field. 1 Smiles’ Engineers, yoI. iii. pp. 18, 22. C 18 The Goal Question. Estimates of the Duration of the Northumberland and. Durham Coal-Field.. Author of Esti- mate. Pate of Esti- mate. Supposed Area of Coal Measures UllWi )li